Dispatches from the War: No. 7
A few hours ago, Donald Trump, like an authoritative father, declared a ceasefire that Israel officially accepted and Iran informally acknowledged. However, this does not signify the end of the war. The Western colonial garrison in the region, known as Israel, immediately accused Iran of violating the ceasefire with a familiar scenario, as they had previously done regarding Lebanon, and announced that they would continue their attacks. Iran, in turn, threatened a decisive response in case of Israeli aggression. So far, it seems that the issue has concluded with a “symbolic” attack on a radar facility near Babolsar, which Iran has indicated it will not respond to. Regardless of today’s events, this situation could reflect the entire state of affairs between Israel and the Islamic Republic in the coming months and possibly years, where the possibility of a war like recent days could emerge at any moment.
As we clearly saw in the case of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel never ceased its aggression against Lebanon in the days following the ceasefire. Even during the war with Iran, despite Hezbollah repeatedly stating that it did not intend to take any action in defense of the Islamic Republic, Israel assassinated several of its cadres in southern Lebanon. Although significant issues such as the fact that in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a non-governing political organization currently under pressure from the Lebanese government and army, while in Iran the Islamic Republic holds state power, introduce some differences in the details of the situation, the general logic governing the notion of a “ceasefire” seems to be no more than this.
On the other hand, the Islamic Republic will now seek to rebuild its internal front. In just the past few days, government-affiliated reformists, previously expelled from the realm of governance, have been invited onto official propaganda platforms as symbols of national reconciliation. The surge in nationalist, patriotic sentiment and the “Long Live Iran” discourse also offers the Islamic Republic an opportunity to use this unified voice to stabilize certain domestic matters, at least in the medium term. Paradoxically, however, this very nationalist atmosphere, in its own logical continuity, will also serve as a platform for monarchist forces, as it has in previous years. The material counterpart to this “national reconciliation” was articulated by Qais Quraishi, a political analyst favored by pro- Axis of Resistance leftists, in a session organized by Jedaal TV to justify Iran’s failure to respond to U.S. military strikes. He said:
“Today, the ruling system is definitely not going to collapse internally; it’s definitely not going to face a civil war, because it takes a real man today to come into Iran and try to sabotage something. Society would chew him up. Believe me, eighty percent of society holds this view. Whereas before, such an act might have been seen as daring by the public. And with the damage of the past few years… well, the rifts that had emerged between society and the state had significantly limited the regime’s freedom of action.” And, of course, the invocation of terms like “saboteur” and “sabotage” from the vocabulary of SAVAK (the Shah’s secret police) is by no means accidental or out of place.
According to available information, from the start of the war until today, 705 people have been arrested by the Islamic Republic’s security agencies, many of whose names we still do not know. However, there are signs that should raise our concern. For instance, a few days ago, the Ministry of Intelligence announced the dismantling of a “well-organized Israeli network in Yasuj.” In describing this network’s activities, it was stated that its members had procured weapons and “divided tasks” across various cities in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province. For what purpose? For “distributing leaflets, underground publications, graffiti, etc.” in order to carry out “sabotage and disruptive operations.” These contradictory claims, especially when placed alongside other reports stating that some of those arrested are people who “played leadership roles in the 2022 protests”, suggest signs of a broader crackdown under the pretext of wartime conditions. Added to this, among the 705 arrested, we at least know the name of Hossein Mirbahari, a member of the Society for the Defense of Working and Street Children and a long-standing activist for children’s rights. He was arrested on Saturday, June 21, and taken to an undisclosed location. Meanwhile, according to reports from our comrades inside Iran, the Islamic Republic’s social management had largely broken down during the war days. In fact, in many police stations across Tehran, professional personnel were absent, and responsibilities had been handed over to a few conscripted soldiers.
In addition, the Islamic Republic will use the shock of war to more brutally implement all levels of its neoliberal policies, which are partly carried out in coordination with international imperialist institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization. As has already happened in recent days, the only achievement of the truck drivers’ strike, the cancellation of the diesel price hike was itself reversed once again. In recent years, the Islamic Republic has shown that while it may back down or make concessions on certain issues, it never retreats when it comes to its economic and class-based policies. It seizes every opportunity to violently enforce these policies, and what better opportunity than the shock of wartime conditions!
Therefore, revolutionary forces must prepare themselves to continue the struggle under such conditions: an unstable ceasefire that could turn into war at any moment; increasingly ferocious behavior from the Islamic Republic’s security forces, justified through constant references to wartime conditions and foreign enemy conspiracies; the uncompromising implementation of economic and class policies that will further destroy the possibilities of resistance for the working class, the urban poor, and the marginalized; and the nationalist-patriotic celebrations of a social force whose class base is the middle class, a class that has repeatedly played a reactionary and degenerate role in all the sharp historical turns of recent years, and is once again playing that same role today. Difficult days lie ahead, in which the emancipatory class struggle and the recovery of its lost potentials must be carried forward in more covert, vigilant, aggressive, and organized ways.
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